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The Seer Game: 2009 Market Trends

Jorge Espinel / December 16, 2008

Jeremy Liew, a good friend and partner at Lightspeed Ventures, inspire me to think about 2009 trends. He has been doing it for the past couple of years and it feels like a good thinking exercise. Below are the thoughts that Jeremy’s post sparked for me.

1. Scalable ad formats for premium advertising may be developed in an effort to attract brand advertisers during this tough economic period (content-driven widgets, content-rich sites, custom widget applications, etc). However, they will formally gain traction till 2010.

2. Premium vertical leaders will probably lead the way and will most likely benefit the most from the flight to quality. Premium brands, targeted audiences and premium content will be the main criteria for advertisers to purchase premium content. Scale of social media will be used to drive users to content-driven environments.

3. Performance display ecosystem will evolve significantly as Google and Yahoo scale their exchanges, optimization tools for publishers gain mass penetration and tools for media buyers improve. Established ad networks will feel competitive pressure but will continue to lead due to strong relationships with advertisers.

4. Large internet players (and potentially a media co.) will get into the virtual goods game to supplement their ad-driven models. We are likely to see a major acquisition in the space.

5. Traditional media companies (particularly newspapers) will fully embrace syndication, linking and web services models. I would expect to see additional acquisitions of online publishers (ala paid content) as these companies try to learn the new models (more likely towards the end of 2009).

6. Cash rich companies will use this year to strengthen their capabilities portfolio via small tech acquisitions (via cash or stock).

Love to hear your reaction.

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