SpectatorBytes

Today, there was an interesting article on USA Today about the impact of DVRs on TV viewership (See Here). It seems that we have certainly been talking about DVRs and specifically Tivo for quite some time. Yet, as the article indicates, DVRs have yet to reach mainstream; penetration levels are hovering at 23%. This will likely change as cable companies and telcos more aggressively integrate DVRs as a core feature of the TV watching experience over the next couple of years.

DVRs feel a bit like the Blackberry. While business users have lived with blackberry devices for over five years, it is only until now that mainstream audiences are having access to and falling in love with them.

When this happens, it will have a dramatic impact on TV audience viewership. The numbers outlined in the survey are already pretty dramatic. At14% penetration level (when survey was conducted), the percent of audiences for hit TV shows that opted to watch after the show’s airing ranged between 12% and 26%. If we extrapolate this numbers, we could estimate that when DVRs reached 50% penetration, >50% of the audience would likely watch the show after its airing.

Three implications of this trend which come to mind:

- The TV advertising value proposition needs to change. Delivering simultaneous audience reach becomes more difficult. Advertisers will also have to assign more value to relationship to good content rather than simply reaching mass audiences

- Live shows (e.g., sports events, award shows, etc.) will continue to increase in value as they become the only vehicle for advertisers to meaningfully get simultaneous reach

- For long-form programming, TV advertising and online ad solutions will likely start to look more similar than not. DVRs will probably enable overlays and post roll ads.

If you have other implications that come to mind, i would like to hear about them.